University of Michigan expects US economy to recover after COVID vaccine becomes widely available


The US Economic Outlook, based on a forecast by the economists, said the US gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 4.2% in 2021, in contrast to the forecast for 2020 that it may reduce. Down 3.6% with real GDP could return to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of 2021.

“We expect the situation to return to close to normal by mid-2021, considering the COVID-19 vaccine. That are ready to use in a wide range Control and treatment of COVID-19 That has been further developed And the fatigue that followed due to the epidemic conditions "

The report also identified other key factors and trends, สล็อต the unemployment rate, which will drop from 6.9 percent in October 2020 to 5.6 percent at the end of 2021 and drop to 5.1. % At the end of 2022. Actual spent income will increase 5.6% in 2020, driven by a major financial stimulus from the US government. Meanwhile, interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages will increase from 2.8% in early 2021 to 3.1% at the end of 2022.

Inflation will remain low. This was due to the rebounding demand in the post-epidemic period. The main inflation rate excluding food and energy will stand at 1.8% in 2021 and at 1.9% in 2022, equivalent to the level in 2019 and below the Federal Reserve's forecast of 2%.

Xinhua news agency reported that This report is produced four times a year by the organizers of the quantitative economics research seminar. Department of Economics University of Michigan since 1952